After uncle's execution, what's next for Kim Jong Un? | Huffing Post International

Friday 13 December 2013

After uncle's execution, what's next for Kim Jong Un?


North Korea said Friday that it had executed Kim Jong Un's uncle as a traitor for trying to seize supreme power, a stunning end for the leader's former mentor, long considered the country's No. 2 official. (Dec. 12) AP
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BEIJING — A stooped figure in handcuffs, condemned by a military tribunal, then taken for immediate execution Thursday, Jang Song Thaek is now vilified as "traitor" and "human scum" in North Korea, where until recently he counted as its second-most-powerful figure.
The dramatic downfall of Jang, the uncle and apparent mentor of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, surprised even veteran observers of the brutal regime founded by Kim's grandfather. Many analysts agree Kim Jong Un, 30, is trying to consolidate his rule, but the wider implications for this tightly sealed state remain as tough to fathom as ever, they said.
In the South Korean capital of Seoul on Friday, security ministers quickly convened a meeting to discuss "analysis and predictions," reported the Yonhap news agency. Pyongyang has regularly threatened South Korea and its main ally the USA, which maintains thousands of troops there.
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North Korea watchers worldwide are likewise scrambling to make sense of Kim Jong Un's move against the husband of his aunt Kim Kyong Hui, sister of Kim's father Kim Jong Il, the nation's previous ruler.
"His father and grandfather got rid of a lot of people, but did it in a very quiet manner, not making big news out of it," said Tong Kim, a North Korea expert at Korea University in Seoul, who expects the aunt, as a direct blood relative, will survive.
Kim Jong Un and his close associates "must have felt intimidated if not threatened, so decided to get rid of Jang first," Tong Kim said.
"No one can be sure what this young leader may do," he added, but his priority must be stabilizing the domestic political situation. That leaves little room for the North Korean leader to consider military provocations in the West Sea or another nuclear test, at least for now, Tong Kim said.
Jang Song-thaek is escorted in court on December 12, 2013. North Korea has executed him, the uncle of its leader Kim Jong Un, after a shock purge, state news agency KCNA announced early on Dec. 13, branding the once-powerful man a "traitor."
Jang Song-thaek is escorted in court on December 12, 2013. North Korea has executed him, the uncle of its leader Kim Jong Un, after a shock purge, state news agency KCNA announced early on Dec. 13, branding the once-powerful man a "traitor."  Yonhap via AFP/Getty Images
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  • Jang Song-thaek is escorted in court on December 12, 2013. North Korea has executed him, the uncle of its leader Kim Jong Un, after a shock purge, state news agency KCNA announced early on Dec. 13, branding the once-powerful man a "traitor."
  • A man watches a TV news program being shown at a railway station in Seoul. The report shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's uncle, Jang Song Thaek, second from right, being escorted by military officers during a trial in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Thursday, Dec. 12, 2013.
  • Military vehicles parade during a ceremony marking the 60th anniversary of the Korean War armistice on July 27 in Pyongyang, North Korea.
  • A North Korean soldier salutes from a tank during a military parade at Kim Il-Sung Square.
  • Veterans of the Korean War wave to their leader, Kim Jong Un, during a military parade.
  • People wave flags as walk with statues of former leaders Kim Il-Sung and Kim Jong-Il.
  • People carry the North Korean national flags.
  • North Korean tanks parade through Kim Il-Sung Square.
  • Ugandan Vice-President Edward Kiwanuka Ssekand, left, Chinese Vice President Li Yuanchao and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un greet spectators.
  • North Korean air force troops march in the parade.
  • A North Korean soldier salutes from his tank.
  • Soldiers march through Kim Il Sung Square.
  • A unit of women soldiers march in formation.
  • People wave flowers during the parade.
  • People carry a portrait of former leader Kim Jong-Il.
  • Dancers parade through Kim Il Sung Sqaure.
  • Thousands of people hold up colored squares as they create a giant North Korean flag as they celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Korean War armistice during a performance at the Rungnado May Day Stadium on July 26 in Pyongyang.
  • People hold colored material as they watch for their cue during a performance. One hundred thousand people created a synchronized socialist-realist performance in a 90 minute display of gymnastics, dance and acrobatics.
  • Dancers perform in Pyongyang.
  • Performers present a program on the field of the Rungnado May Day Stadium.
  • Noth Korean army veterans watch the program.
  • Fireworks explode above the Pyongyaang skyline.
  • North Korean soldiers walk along a road in front of the truce village of Panmunjom at the Demilitarized Zone on July 22.
  • North Korean pedestrians and bicyclists pass by a billboard for Pyeonghwa Motors, North Korea's car manufacturer, on a highway on the outskirts of Pyongyang.
  • North Koreans stand to applaud during the opening night of the "Arirang" mass games performance at Pyongyang's May Day Stadium on July 22. This year's performance was timed to debut for the 60th anniversary of the end of the Korean War.
  • At dusk, the setting sunlight is reflected on the Taedong River in Pyongyang, North Korea, on July 21.
  • North Koreans clean a street after a heavy rainfall in Kaesong, North Korea.
  • Thousands of North Koreans turn colored cards to create an image of the Unha-3 rocket that North Korea successfully launched in December 2012 during the Arirang mass games.
  • A North Korean soldier sits inside a room in Panmunjom inside the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).
  • North Koreans ride bicycles in the rain along the Taedong River bank in Pyongyang, North Korea.
  • North Korean soldiers walk on a highway near the North Korean city of Kaesong.
  • North Korean nurses sing and play the accordion while children dance during an event to start a campaign to give vitamin A supplements and deworming pills to children at a nursery school in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Child Health Day, May 20. UNICEF and North Korean government agencies are collaborating in the campaign to assist 1.7 million children across the country under age 5.
  • North Korean nurses give vitamin A supplements and deworming pills to children dressed in their best outfits at an elite nursery school in Pyongyang, North Korea.
  • North Koreans pass by the outer wall of a construction site where a propaganda billboard depicts the launch of North Korean rockets in Pyongyang, North Korea. The billboard reads: "Let's open up an era to a strong economic country."
  • North Koreans play a board game inside a sauna at the Haedanghwa Health Complex in Pyongyang, North Korea, on May 19. The newly opened complex houses a cooking school, multiple banquet rooms, swimming and wading pools, a billiards room and other spa and recreational facilities.
  • North Korean swimmers enter a waterfall wading pool inside the Haedanghwa Health Complex in Pyongyang, North Korea.
  • Wearing gym-provided workout clothing, North Koreans rest near the gym at the Haedanghwa Health Complex in Pyongyang, North Korea.
  • Portraits of former North Korean leaders Kim Il Sung, left, and Kim Jong Il hang on the outside of a building in central Pyongyang, North Korea, on May 18.
  • North Korean soldiers and civilians pose for photos April 25 as they tour the grounds of Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, the mausoleum in Pyongyang where the bodies of former leaders Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il lie embalmed. Last month, North Korea marked the 81st anniversary of the founding of its military, which began as an anti-Japanese militia and now has an estimated 1.2 million troops.
  • North Korean soldiers tour the park surrounding Kumsusan Palace of the Sun.
  • North Korean army Col. Kim Chang Jun stands behind field binoculars on a hilltop overlooking the Demilitarized Zone, south of Kaesong, North Korea, on April 24.
  • A boy walks along a path in front of a village south of Kaesong, North Korea.
  • A North Korean boy rides in a bicycle basket on a road north of Kaesong, North Korea.
  • A North Korean boy on rollerblades is pulled by a woman on a bicycle on a road south of Kaesong, North Korea and north of the demilitarized zone which separates the two Koreas.
  • A North Korean man checks his bicycle next to a propaganda billboard in Kaesong, North Korea.
  • North Korean soldiers ride in the top of a military truck on a road in Kaesong, North Korea. For weeks, North Korea has threatened to attack the U.S. and South Korea for holding joint military drills and for supporting U.N. sanctions. Washington and Seoul officials said they've seen no evidence that Pyongyang is actually preparing for a major conflict, though South Korean defense officials said the North appears prepared to test-fire a medium-range missile.
  • North Korean farmers work in a field inside the Demilitarized Zone at Panmunjom, North Korea.
  • A North Korean traffic policeman stands at an intersection in Kaesong, North Korea on April 23.
  • North Koreans walk bicycles along a street in Kaesong, North Korea.
  • North Korean children walk in front of an apartment block in Kaesong, North Korea.
  • North Korean soldiers stand on steps overlooking the border village of Panmunjom, North Korea.
  • A painting, depicting North Korean soldiers ambushing and killing U.S. troops hangs on a gallery wall at an art exhibition Friday in Pyongyang.
  • A North Korean boy practices his lines -- "Our country is the greatest in the world" -- as he is filmed by a local television crew at an exhibition of traditional calligraphy in Pyongyang.
  • North Korean children perform in front of an image of weapons and bayonetsat Mangyongdae Children's Palace in Pyongyang.
  • Children practice a musical performance at Mangyongdae Children's Palace.
  • A guide stands in a waiting room at Mangyongdae Children's Palace in Pyongyang. Portraits in the background show North Korea's late leaders Kim Il Sung, left, and Kim Jong Il.
  • Children work at easels during a drawing class at Mangyongdae Children's Palace.
  • A North Korean soldier plows a field on the outskirts of Pyongyang.
  • North Koreans walk along a sidewalk in Pyongyang.
  • A North Korean soldier walks through a parking lot as workers paint a building block across the street in Pyongyang.
  • A North Korean soldier guarding the entrance to Pyongyang's Kumsusan mausoleum, where the bodies of the late leaders Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il lie embalmed, looks back through the doors of the main gate Monday, April 15, 2013. North Koreans turned out on Monday to mark the 101st birthday of Kim Il Sung.
  • A North Korean man misses the turn and loses control of his go cart on a track at the Fun Fair in Pyongyang on Tuesday, April 16, 2013.
  • A North Korean child covers the eyes of her father as she sits on his shoulders watching mass folk dancing in front of Pyongyang Indoor Stadium in Pyongyang, North Korea. Oblivious to international tensions over a possible North Korean missile launch, Pyongyang residents spilled into the streets Monday to celebrate a major national holiday, the birthday of their first leader, Kim Il Sung.
  • North Korean commuters ride on a city trolley bus in Pyongyang.
  • Marathon runners pass by a long row of North Korean soldiers as they cross a bridge in Pyongyang on Sunday, April 14, 2013. North Korea hosted the 26th Mangyongdae Prize Marathon to mark the April 15, 2013 birthday of the late leader Kim Il Sung.
  • A North Korean woman walks past the outer wall of a construction site where a propaganda billboard depicting the launch of North Korean rockets in Pyongyang, North Korea. The billboard reads: "Lets open up an era to a strong economic country."
  • North Korean children hold up red scarves to be tied around their necks during an induction ceremony into the Korean Children's Union, the first political organization for North Koreans, held at a stadium in Pyongyang on Friday, April 12, 2013.
  • North Koreans dance together beneath a mosaic painting of the late leader Kim Il Sung during a mass folk dancing gathering in Pyongyang Thursday, April 11, 2013, to mark the anniversary of the first of many titles of power given to leader Kim Jong Un after the death of his father Kim Jong Il.
  • A North Korean man pushes a bicycle up a hill on the outskirts of Pyongyang.
  • North Korean man drives a small tractor in central Pyongyang, North Korea.
  • North Korean pedestrians walk on a sidewalk past a large nationalist painting in Pyongyang, North Korea.
  • North Korean children carrying brooms walk on a sidewalk in Pyongyang on their way to help tidy up the area around bronze statues of the late leaders as the capital city prepares to mark the April 15 birthday of its founder Kim Il Sung.
  • A North Korean soldier passes by roadside propaganda depicting a North Korean soldier killing a U.S. soldier in Pyongyang. The poster reads in Korean "Life or Death Battle. Merciless Punishment to U.S. Imperialists and Puppet Traitors."
  • An apartment block stands among the buildings at dawn in central Pyongyang, North Korea, Wednesday, April 10, 2013.
  • Reflected in the airport building glass, passengers disembark from North Korea's Air Koryo flight as they arrive at the Pyongyang International airport on Tuesday, April 9, 2013.
  • North Korean soldiers march through Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, on March 16.
  • Two North Korean boys hop a ride on the back of a city tram March 14 to cross a bridge in Pyongyang.
  • North Koreans select apples and oranges, imported from China, at a supermarket in Pyongyang on March 13.
  • A North Korean soldier works at a computer terminal under portraits of the late leaders Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il inside the Grand People's Study House in Pyongyang on March 12.
  • A bus is covered in camouflage netting in a parking lot of a building in Pyongyang on March 9.
  • A children's pop-up book, displayed by a teacher March 9 at at Kaeson Kindergarten in Pyongyang, depicts a U.S. soldier killing a Korean woman with a hatchet. For North Koreans, the systematic indoctrination of anti-Americanism starts as early as kindergarten.
  • A North Korean girl readies a toy gun that fires rubber corks as she and others play a shooting game at a carnival March 8 at a park in Pyongyang.
  • A Mercedes rides along a street in central Pyongyang. The U.N. Security Council responded swiftly to North Korea's Feb. 12 nuclear test by punishing the reclusive regime Thursday with new sanctions that target the communist nation's economy and leadership. Pyongyang responded with the threat of a pre-emptive nuclear strike on the United States.
  • An image depicting a female North Korean soldier leading an attack is projected on a screen behind performers during a concert in Pyongyang marking International Women's Day. The text at the top of the screen reads, "We are the General's female coastal artillery troops."
  • North Koreans rally March 7 at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang in support of a government statement Tuesday that vowed to cancel the 1953 cease-fire that ended the Korean War. The statement also boasted of North Korea's ownership of "lighter and smaller nukes" and its ability to execute "surgical strikes" meant to unify the divided Korean Peninsula.
  • North Koreans carry bundles on their backs as they cross a frozen lake north of the capital city of Pyongyang on Feb. 24.
  • A North Korean woman sings karaoke at the Hyangsan Hotel at the foot of Mount Myohyang on Feb. 23.
  • North Koreans cross a railroad bridge over a riverbed south of Mount Myohyang, and north of the capital city of Pyongyang.
  • A North Korean traffic officer patrols a street Feb. 22 in central Pyongyang.
  • A nurse looks out of a window at a neighborhood health clinic in Pyongyang.
  • A North Korean man stands next to a tractor and wagon on the edge of a snow-covered field near the village of Ryongsan-ri, south of Pyongyang.
  • Pedestrians walk along a street Feb. 21 in central Pyongyang.
  • A nurse comforts a baby at a nursery inside Pyongyang Maternity Hospital on Feb. 20.
  • Well-wishers wave flower bouquets as buses carrying North Korean nuclear scientists and other officials pass by in Pyongyang. Scientists and other officials involved in the North's underground nuclear test on Feb. 12 arrived in the capital city Feb. 20 to a celebration.
  • Photos showing different hairstyles hang inside a barber shop in Pyongyang.
  • A 2013 calendar, showing a picture of North Korea's Unha-3 rocket, hangs inside a hair salon in Pyongyang.
  • A North Korean portrait photographer instructs soldiers to pose for a picture under a mosaic of the late leaders Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il at an exhibition in Pyongyang on Feb. 17, where Kimjongilia flowers, named after Kim Jong Il, were on display.
  • A North Korean woman, with a fake Kalashnikov rifle used in a theatrical performance, stands in front of the Pyongyang Grand Theatre waiting for a ride.
  • Soldiers ride an escalator past a model of their country's Unha Rocket as they enter an exhibition in Pyongyang.
  • A musical performance is held in Pyongyang with the words "Let's strike the imperialists mercilessly with the same success we had carrying out the 3rd nuclear test" projected on a screen.
Jang enjoyed a reputation as an able project and personnel manager, but he belonged to the older generation, while Kim "needs a coalition of younger loyalists," said Daniel Pinkston, senior analyst for the International Crisis Group in Seoul.
"North Korea is a centralized, authoritarian dictatorship, and that's how personnel turnover happens in dictatorships," he said of Jang's execution.
Pinkston's latest visit to North Korea last month confirmed the control the Kim dynasty exerts. "The intensity of the Kim family cult is arguably stronger than it ever was," he said.
As for foreign relations, in a region long troubled by Pyongyang's belligerence and "military first" policies, "North Korea has a hostile orientation towards the rest of the world, and I don't see that changing for now," Pinkston said.
Even China, the North's single significant ally and key source of food and fuel, is worried by Kim's actions, said Cai Jian, a North Korea expert at Fudan University in Shanghai.
"Beijing won't invite Kim to visit in the short term, because Beijing is not happy about some of his policies," Cai said. Unlike his father, a regular guest whose visits prompted hope of Chinese-style economic reforms, Kim has yet to visit China during his two years in power.
Several of the charges against Jang, who previously steered economic relations with China, mention a "foreign country" and "show Kim Jong Un doesn't want to rely too much on China like before," Cai said. Still, Jang's removal will "postpone" but not cancel economic co-operation between the two countries, he added.
Although Chinese leader Xi Jinping "gave North Korea more pressure on some issues, China won't change the policy of supporting Kim Jong Un to maintain strategic balance," Cai said.
South Korean media have reported that two North Korean vice premiers fled to China after Jang's downfall, but Cai doubted Beijing would risk further damaging relations with Pyongyang by providing asylum.
China's stubborn loyalty to its neighbor sparks increasing questions from some of its citizens.
"Kim Jong Un's regime is so evil, it's crueler than the fascists," wrote Liao Rui, a lawyer in southwest Sichuan province, on China's Twitter equivalent, Sina Weibo. "China unexpectedly still wants to align with this kind of evil regime and support them, (but) sooner or later, they will bite and betray China."
"Nobody knows what this means for stability in North Korea," David Straub, director of the Korean Studies Program at Stanford University, told the NK News website. "It could, for a time, mean more stability, it could mean less stability," he said.
"Sooner or later there will be a dramatic dis-juncture in North Korea — whether it's for the better or worse, time will tell," Straub added. "But that kind of regime cannot stay, it is strong but very brittle."

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