Jeb Bush's Popularity Challenge

By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Carrie Dann

Jeb Bush is now even closer to a 2016 presidential run, after announcing Tuesday that he is "actively" exploring a White House bid. And our new NBC/WSJ poll reveals why he appears to be doing this so early: He has A LOT of work to do. Despite having nearly perfect name identification, he's more popular -- at least right now -- among the Beltway crowd and deep-pocketed GOP donors than he is among most American voters. According to our poll, just 31% of all voters say they could see themselves supporting him for president, while 57% say they can't. He's more popular among Republicans (55% support, 34% can't support), which is the second-best GOP score in the poll behind Mitt Romney (see at the bottom). But he fares worse among Democrats (9%-79%) and, more importantly, independents (34%-52%). These numbers follow our Nov. 2014 NBC/WSJ poll, which found Bush's fav/unfav rating at a net-negative 26%-33%. Of course, this is all subject to change. We could see how Bush -- if he runs and bests his GOP competition -- could improve his numbers among Republicans and some independents. Nothing can change polling numbers like success. But right now, he's not Mr. Popular (in large part, we think, because of his last name). And it's going to take time for him to become Jeb and not a Bush.

Hillary's your early 2016 frontrunner -- but barely

It's instructive to compare Jeb's numbers in our NBC/WSJ poll to Hillary Clinton's: 50% say they could see themselves supporting her if she runs, versus 48% who oppose her. To us, those numbers sure look like what you might see in a general election less than two years from now. (President Obama beat Mitt Romney 51%-47% in the 2012 presidential election.) So you see both Hillary's floor and ceiling. We couldn't imagine her getting more than 50%-51% in a general election, but we also couldn't see her getting less than 48%-49%. Her challenge, however, is a different one: A whopping 71% of American voters want the next president to take a different approach than Obama's; Clinton served as his first-term secretary of state. And by 40% to 38%, voters prefer a Republican to win the White House in 2016 instead of a Democrat. "This is an electorate --by a large margin -- looking for change," says Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart and his colleagues at Hart Research Associates.

Hillary's also your big leader among Democratic voters

Still, Clinton has a substantial lead among Democratic voters -- 82% say they could see themselves supporting if she runs, versus 15% who can't. By contrast, Elizabeth Warren (37% support, 25 percent oppose) and Vice President Joe Biden (51% support, 41% oppose) have less appeal among Democrats. These numbers -- like others before them - should quiet liberals and political observers who are pining for an Elizabeth Warren challenge. Yes, Warren does well among the same Democratic groups who backed Bill Bradley in 2000 and Paul Tsongas before him. But guess what: Those folks didn't win.

Why Hillary needs Jeb (and vice versa)

Jeb's early move is good news for Hillary Clinton. Why? One, it rallies Democrats, who might be a bit despondent after their midterm losses. (What fires them up more than the opportunity to run against another Bush?) Two, Bush gives Clinton something/someone to run AGAINST. And three, Bush getting into the race makes him have to share the dynastic/legacy card with her. Bottom line: Hillary needs Jeb. And vice versa, Jeb needs Hillary. Both of their rationales for running are easier with them both in the race.

Breaking down our 2016 polling -- can you see yourselves supporting or opposing this particular candidate?

Among all voters

Hillary Clinton 50%-48% (+2)
Jim Webb 9%-24% (-15)
Rand Paul 30%-47% (-17)
Martin O'Malley 4%-21% (-17)
Scott Walker 15%-32% (-17)
Elizabeth Warren 22%-40% (-18)
Bernie Sanders 10%-30% (-20)
Marco Rubio 20%-43% (-23)
Jeb Bush 31%-57% (-26)
Chris Christie 27%-53% (-26)
Mitt Romney 33%-60% (-27)
Ted Cruz 17%-44% (-27)
Mike Huckabee 25%-53% (-28)
Rick Perry 19%-52% (-33)
Joe Biden 29%-64% (-35)

Among Democrats

Hillary Clinton 82%-15% (+67)
Elizabeth Warren 37%-25% (+12)
Joe Biden 51%-41% (+10)
Jim Webb 13%-21% (-8)
Bernie Sanders 18%-28% (-10)
Martin O'Malley 7%-21% (-14)

Among Republicans

Mitt Romney 63%-33% (+30)
Jeb Bush 55%-34% (+21)
Rand Paul 47%-34% (+13)
Marco Rubio 39%-28% (+11)
Scott Walker 29%-20% (+9)
Mike Huckabee 47%-39% (+8)
Ted Cruz 34%-33% (+1)
Chris Christie 40%-43% (-3)
Rick Perry 35%-39% (-4)

Among independents

Hillary Clinton 45%-52% (-7)
Rand Paul 29%-42% (-13)
Martin O'Malley 3%-17% (-14)
Jeb Bush 34%-52% (-18)
Scott Walker 11%-32% (-21)
Chris Christie 27%-49% (-22)
Jim Webb 7%-29% (-22)
Elizabeth Warren 16%-42% (-26)
Bernie Sanders 7%-33% (-26)
Mitt Romney 29%-60% (-31)
Ted Cruz 11%-43% (-32)
Marco Rubio 12%-46% (-34)
Mike Huckabee 20%-55% (-35)
Rick Perry 13%-53% (-40)
Joe Biden 19%-71% (-52)

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First published December 17th 2014, 6:13 am

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First Read's Morning Clips

OBAMA AGENDA: The state of our race relations is … bad

From one of us(!): "A majority of Americans now say that race relations in the United States are bad, according to the latest NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll, which showed the most pessimistic assessment of racial issues in almost two decades. In the wake of protests over the deaths of unarmed black men at the hands of police, just four in ten Americans told pollsters that they believe race relations in the United States are "good," while 57 percent disagreed. And nearly a quarter - 23 percent - classified the current state of the country's racial issues as 'very bad.'"

Writes the Wall Street Journal: "U.S. oil prices resumed their slide on Wednesday after a brief respite the previous day, as a global oversupply of crude showed no signs of abating. Oil prices have almost halved since the summer, with producers from the U.S. to the Middle East ramping up output even as demand growth for the commodity has weakened."

Barack Obama, in an interview in People magazine, talks about times he's been mistaken for a valet or a waiter. ""It's one thing for me to be mistaken for a waiter at a gala. It's another thing for my son to be mistaken for a robber and to be handcuffed, or worse, if he happens to be walking down the street and is dressed the way teenagers dress."

USAID administrator Raj Shah is on his way out, reports the Washington Post.

From USA Today: "President Obama has issued a form of executive action known as the presidential memorandum more often than any other president in history — using it to take unilateral action even as he has signed fewer executive orders."

CONGRESS: Hasta La Vista, 113th Congress

They're outta here. The Senate finally wrapped up its work late last night, including an extension of tax breaks but a failure to renew a terrorism insurance program.

The Hill reviews how Ted Cruz's immigration gambit helped Democrats confirm additional nominees.

NBC's Frank Thorp reports that Cruz apologized to his GOP colleagues for "inconveniencing their personal schedules."

Roll Call looks at how new House Oversight Committee chair Jason Chaffetz is looking to take the panel in a new direction.

OFF TO THE RACES: Hillary's your early 2016 frontrunner - but barely

One of us(!) writes that Hillary Clinton is the early 2016 frontrunner -- but barely.

CC: Jeb Bush. Bobby Jindal, in Iowa, said he was "absolutely opposed to this idea of party insiders, the party establishment, donors or anybody other than voters picking our candidates, picking our nominees for us, picking our leaders for us."

Clinton yesterday: via the AP: "Today we can say again in a loud and clear voice that the United States should never condone or practice torture anywhere in the world. That should be absolutely clear as a matter of both policy and law, including our international treaty obligations."

And here's Bernie Sanders in Ames yesterday: "There's no way we are going to address the problems facing this country without a political revolution." (He told an audience that he still hasn't decided whether to run or not.)

From Perry Bacon Jr. and Leigh Ann Caldwell: "Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush's announcement on Tuesday that he is "actively exploring" a presidential campaign has sent a jolt through a Republican 2016 primary process that had been heading to a quiet end in 2014. The move sets a new phase of the race in motion and makes it easier for Bush to prepare for a full-fledged campaign. At the same time, it increases the difficulty for some of his potential rivals to consolidate support among key Republican officials while giving others a handy target to use in gathering loyal, grass-roots support."

Democratic group American Bridge has a master cut of clips about Jeb Bush's issues with the conservative base.

National Journal reports that Marco Rubio believes he's got a different set of policies and donors that will set him apart from Bush.

ARIZONA: The AP: ' The results of a recount in the nation's last undecided congressional race from the midterm elections are set to be revealed Wednesday by an Arizona judge in a move that will determine the size of the GOP majority in Washington."

IOWA: Clip and save: The Des Moines Register's candidate tracker for 2016.

NORTH CAROLINA: From the AP: "Soon after taking office, North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory and U.S. Rep. Mark Sanford of South Carolina accepted six-figure stock payouts from an online mortgage broker accused by regulators of deceiving its customers."

VIRGINIA: Republicans are blasting Gov. Terry McAuliffe's new package of gun regulations as purely political.

PROGRAMMING NOTES.

*** Wednesday's "News Nation with Tamron Hall" line-up: Tamron Hall interviews Entertainment lawyer & USC professor Jonathan Handel on the new Sony hacking threats; Denton Cinquegrana, oil analyst, on the low gas prices; and Mike Reicher, of the LA Daily News on the LAPD body cameras

*** Wednesday's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" line-up: NBC's Andrea Mitchell interviews NBC's Chuck Todd, Joe Fryer, Bill Neely, Amna Nawaz and Keir Simmons, Fmr. Rep Barney Frank and Team Rubicon CEO Jacob Wood.

First published December 17th 2014, 6:06 am